New modelling adds weight to pharmacist prescribing debate

New modelling has put a dollar figure on one of the most contentious reforms in healthcare, arguing that permanent pharmacist prescribing could deliver more than $1 billion in annual health system savings while helping to offset the shortage of general practitioners (GPs).

The report, Rewriting the Script, finds that expanding prescribing powers for trained pharmacists could free up more than 10 million GP appointments each year and prevent around 30,000 hospitalisations annually, positioning community pharmacy as a key pressure valve for an increasingly strained healthcare system.

The findings come as concerns grow over the future primary care workforce. While there are approximately 40,000 GPs nationally, workforce growth is failing to keep pace with rising demand. With a projected GP workforce shortfall of 8,600 by 2048, the report argues that structural reform will be essential to maintain timely access to care.

Professor Trent Twomey, National President of the Pharmacy Guild of Australia, said the modelling should serve as a catalyst for the federal government to fully utilise the capacity of community pharmacies.

“This modelling shows that empowering specially trained pharmacists to prescribe for appropriate conditions isn’t just good for patients – it’s good for the entire health system. It improves access, reduces wait times and delivers more than a billion dollars in annual savings,” he said.

A central case study examined in the report involves transferring routine cardiovascular risk reduction services, including prescription renewals and stable hypertension reviews, from general practice to community pharmacy.

According to the modelling, pharmacist-led care in this area alone could avoid approximately 6.1 million GP appointments each year, significantly expanding capacity across primary care. The report estimates government savings from avoided GP appointments at $268.8 million annually, alongside a further $7.6 million in savings from reduced hospitalisations. Patients would save an estimated $88.6 million in GP out-of-pocket costs through avoided consultations.

However, the modelling assumes patients shifting from GP clinics to pharmacies would avoid productivity losses associated with attending medical appointments. The report attributes $252.8 million in annual productivity gains to reduced workforce absenteeism, although consumers would still need to take time to attend pharmacy consultations. Patients would also be required to pay pharmacist consultation fees unless those services are funded through Medicare and medicines subsidised under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS).

Irene Deltetto, Principal, Strategy and Social Impact at HTANALYSTS, said “We modelled that $21 billion in overall economic impact would be created across just four conditions [asthma, COPD, cardiovascular risk assessment, and hormonal contraception] through pharmacist autonomous prescribing. What’s needed now is the regulatory and funding architecture to make this model permanent and nationally consistent.”

Momentum for expanding the pharmacists’ role is growing at the federal policy level, despite the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners (RACGP) remaining firmly opposed to fragmented care.

In March 2026, Federal Health Minister Mark Butler announced the government would conduct a trial subsidising pharmacist-initiated oral contraceptives and antibiotics for uncomplicated urinary tract infections (UTIs), with medicines funded up to PBS co-payment amounts from 1 January 2027.

The modelling also aligns closely with the Pharmacy Guild’s long-term strategic ambitions. The Guild’s 10-year strategy, Towards 2035, outlines a vision for pharmacy to become “the first port of call for primary healthcare services” through the “adoption of full scope of practice” across all jurisdictions. Among its targets, the strategy seeks to have 80% of Australia’s pharmacists qualified to prescribe medicines across more than 22 acute and chronic health conditions.

To support that transition, the report recommends nationally consistent prescribing powers, including remuneration for pharmacist prescribing consultations through the Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS), PBS funding for medicines prescribed by pharmacists to prevent out-of-pocket costs, and integrated digital health systems that enable real-time communication between pharmacists, GPs and other healthcare providers.

The Pharmacy Guild is calling on the federal government to implement all three recommendations outlined in the report.

“Every day pharmacists assess the safety, appropriateness and clinical need of medicines prescribed to patients. The right national frameworks will mean pharmacist prescribing can transform access to safe and effective healthcare,” said Professor Twomey. “People visit their pharmacist every three weeks on average and each of those visits is an opportunity to do more to create healthier communities. We need to make sure patients get the right care, at the right time, at a place they choose.”

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