Australia’s three-way political split is becoming permanent

The nation’s three-way political split is beginning to look permanent. Another month of polling points to roughly a third of the first-preference vote flowing to each of Labor, One Nation and the Coalition.

Labor primary support is at 28.5%, ahead of One Nation 25% and Coalition, at 23.5%, while Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has a net approval rating of minus 17. Yet Labor is still widely regarded as the likely winners of the next federal election.

Interesting trends are also emerging in Victoria’s state voting intention ahead of the November election. The Coalition is projected to win 11 seats in Victoria’s Upper House, narrowly ahead of One Nation on 10 and Labor on 9. The Greens are projected to win two seats and other parties one, with seven seats still undecided, according to a Roy Morgan poll conducted in August.

The Federal Government, meanwhile, appears remarkably unperturbed, with little visible sign of unease among its backbenchers.

The YouGov and Morgan polls asked respondents where they would direct their second preference. On that basis, Labor led both the Coalition and One Nation by at least 52.5 to 47.5. A two-party-preferred margin of that magnitude would deliver Labor government. Perhaps that explains why Labor appears so relaxed with a primary vote of only 28%.

But there is a significant caveat. Those preferences were expressed without the benefit of a how-to-vote card. In the event of a formal or informal Coalition-One Nation preference arrangement, the electoral outcome could look very different.

Cost of living remains voters’ dominant concern, although only 36% now place it at the top of their list, nine points lower than a month ago. The voter response on immigration is more blunt and more politically consequential. Fifty-seven per cent (57%) said immigration is too high, while fifty-four per cent (54%) of respondents believe the government is handling immigration in an unplanned way. A further 56% support stricter visa controls.

Indeed, it is a fair assumption that perceptions of unmanaged immigration are among the principal reasons for One Nation’s surge in support. Yet, if Labor wants to lift its primary vote, it needs to address immigration in a manner that cannot reasonably be characterised as racist or hostile to multiculturalism.

There is a blindspot in the conventional interpretation of the polling numbers: the fixation on who will ‘win’ the election by securing a majority in the House of Representatives. But without getting legislation through the Senate, a government is merely managing, not governing the nation.

At present, Labor and the Greens hold 39 of the Senate’s 76 seats which is a majority of one. They cannot afford to lose a single seat. The loss of just one would reduce them to 38 of 76, leaving the chamber tied. A tied vote in the Senate means the motion does not pass. A Coalition and One Nation combined 46% voter support could translate into three Senate seats in each state. That would make it considerably harder for a Labor-Greens majority to emerge.

The central political paradox, therefore, is becoming harder to ignore. Labor can appear electorally comfortable while polling at levels that would ordinarily be catastrophic, largely because the conservative vote remains divided. But the same fragmentation that is currently protecting the government could become its undoing if Coalition and One Nation preferences begin to coalesce.

In reimagining healthcare across the entire patient journey, Health Industry Hub^TM is the only one-stop-hub uniting the diversity of the Pharma, MedTech, Diagnostics & Biotech sectors to inspire meaningful change.

The Health Industry Hub^TM content is copyright protected. Access is available under individual user licenses. Please click here to subscribe and visit T&Cs here.