Clarivate forecasts nearly 70% of Asia Pacific, North American and European adult populations will be vaccinated for COVID-19 by September 2021

A new report analyses how the emergence and increased availability of vaccines will impact the recovery of healthcare markets across the globe.

Clarivate, a global leader in providing trusted information and insights to accelerate the pace of innovation, announced the launch of its COVID-19 Vaccine Availability and Medtech Impact Report which features retrospective, current and predictive analysis to forecast an estimate of the rate at which vaccination will occur in each country in 2021. The report found that, despite continued public health measures in 2021, it is expected that the emergence of multiple vaccines in late 2020 and the rollout of these vaccines globally will determine how healthcare markets recover in 2021 and beyond.

Lockdowns, procedure deferrals, clinical trial pauses and M&A challenges all impact the fundamental operations of healthcare stakeholders. Real world data from Clarivate provides a clear understanding of past trends and allows for predictive forecasting to enable more confident decision-making for stakeholders tasked with the recovery of healthcare systems.

The report details the current vaccine development status and the various distinctions between available vaccines, an analysis of global vaccination rollout campaigns, how these factors influence forecasting and the impact of vaccination availability on healthcare markets and sectors.

Zaid Al-Nassir, Principal Analyst, Medtech Insights, Clarivate, said “Given the lack of historical data and immense pressure on health care stakeholders globally, predictive analysis of recovery drivers, such as vaccination, provides a unique insight for planning, decision making, and both market and regional targeting. The new imperative for global health, driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, has amplified the need for connected data to support complex analyses and evidence-based decisions in the life sciences.”

Report Findings

The Clarivate COVID-19 Vaccine Availability and Medtech Impact report finds:

Vaccine Acceptance and Rate Forecast by Geography

Along with supply and deployment concerns, varying rates of trust in the COVID-19 vaccine observed in recent surveys have raised concerns about whether enough of the population would be willing to get vaccinated. As a result, rates of vaccine acceptance – defined as the proportion of unvaccinated adults who indicate that they would receive a vaccine if it were available to them – vary widely by region.

Clarivate analysts have built a model to forecast how the vaccination rollout would be implemented in several countries. This reveals several insights, such as the timing of when certain populations may become vaccinated or the ability of a country to distribute vaccines.

Accordingly, to this model, the vaccine rollout in the Asia Pacific region is dominated by Mainland China and India. Differences can be seen with Japan, South Korea, and Australia, which did not start their vaccination programs until the end of March 2021, compared to Mainland China and India, which started in January 2021. Nonetheless, Australia is expected to be able to initiate reopenings earlier than the other countries covered, due primarily to its relative small population and an expected ramp up in its vaccination program.

Site of Service Impacts

During the initial COVID-19 wave, US-based Ambulatory Surgery Centres (ASC) were hardest hit, while inpatient settings were the least impacted, as expected. ASCs and offices were trending at higher procedure capacity utilization rates than hospitals in Q4 2020, which may signal a more robust 2021 recovery for those settings. ASCs functioned at slightly higher than 100% full utilisation (i.e., exceeding pre-COVID-19 levels) through the last quarter of the year. This may signal a push of procedures away from inpatient settings amid a resurgence of COVID-19 that ultimately were performed in ASCs.

Non-Acute Settings

There is a similar view for US-based non-acute settings, demonstrating how skilled nursing facilities remain substantially below full procedure capacity utilisation, possibly due to the need for expanded nursing staff in hospitals treating COVID-19 patients. Simultaneously, clinics and home health also took a substantial hit in the initial wave, but have seen stronger recovery following that initial wave. Notably, telehealth emerged as a useful alternative for in-person care in 2020; however, telehealth volumes remain quite low relatively; and its heightened use will endure and likely expand beyond the pandemic.

Download the full report now: COVID-19 Vaccine Availability and Medtech Impact Report

Methodology for the Clarivate COVID-19 Vaccine Availability and Medtech Impact Report

Forecasts and insights provided in this report were developed by Clarivate analysts, using a diversity of proprietary sources, including: Market Tracking: Medical Supply Distribution data enables manufacturers to identify opportunities and risks by confidently assessing market share based on real-time insights; Clarivate Real World Data™ product, which provides access to real-word data, such as patient volumes by procedure group and site of service; Medtech Insights™, which provides comprehensive data forecasts and analysis for global and regional medical device markets; and Market Assessment Epidemiology™, which provides solutions to understand the complete disease landscape and size global markets with real-world data.

About Clarivate

Clarivate™ is a global leader in providing solutions to accelerate the lifecycle of innovation. Our bold mission is to help customers solve some of the world’s most complex problems by providing actionable information and insights that reduce the time from new ideas to life-changing inventions in the areas of science and intellectual property. We help customers discover, protect and commercialise their inventions using our trusted subscription and technology-based solutions coupled with deep domain expertise. For more information, please visit clarivate.com.